Neglected tropical diseases risk correlates with poverty and early ecosystem destruction.

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases affect the most vulnerable populations and cause chronic and debilitating disorders. Socioeconomic vulnerability is a well-known and important determinant of neglected tropical diseases. For example, poverty and sanitation could influence parasite transmission. Nevertheless, the quantitative impact of socioeconomic conditions on disease transmission risk remains poorly explored. METHODS: This study investigated the role of socioeconomic variables in the predictive capacity of risk models of neglected tropical zoonoses using a decade of epidemiological data (2007-2018) from Brazil. Vector-borne diseases investigated in this study included dengue, malaria, Chagas disease, leishmaniasis, and Brazilian spotted fever, while directly-transmitted zoonotic diseases included schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, and hantaviruses. Environmental and socioeconomic predictors were combined with infectious disease data to build environmental and socioenvironmental sets of ecological niche models and their performances were compared. RESULTS: Socioeconomic variables were found to be as important as environmental variables in influencing the estimated likelihood of disease transmission across large spatial scales. The combination of socioeconomic and environmental variables improved overall model accuracy (or predictive power) by 10% on average (P < 0.01), reaching a maximum of 18% in the case of dengue fever. Gross domestic product was the most important socioeconomic variable (37% relative variable importance, all individual models exhibited P < 0.00), showing a decreasing relationship with disease indicating poverty as a major factor for disease transmission. Loss of natural vegetation cover between 2008 and 2018 was the most important environmental variable (42% relative variable importance, P < 0.05) among environmental models, exhibiting a decreasing relationship with disease probability, showing that these diseases are especially prevalent in areas where natural ecosystem destruction is on its initial stages and lower when ecosystem destruction is on more advanced stages. CONCLUSIONS: Destruction of natural ecosystems coupled with low income explain macro-scale neglected tropical and zoonotic disease probability in Brazil. Addition of socioeconomic variables improves transmission risk forecasts on tandem with environmental variables. Our results highlight that to efficiently address neglected tropical diseases, public health strategies must target both reduction of poverty and cessation of destruction of natural forests and savannas.

How heterogeneous is the dengue transmission profile in Brazil? A study in six Brazilian states.

Dengue is a vector-borne disease present in most tropical countries, infecting an average of 50 to 100 million people per year. Socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors directly influence the transmission cycle of the dengue virus (DENV). In Brazil, these factors vary between regions producing different profiles of dengue transmission and challenging the epidemiological surveillance of the disease. In this article, we aimed at classifying the profiles of dengue transmission in 1,823 Brazilian municipalities, covering different climates, from 2010 to 2019. Time series data of dengue cases were obtained from six states: Ceará and Maranhão in the semiarid Northeast, Minas Gerais in the countryside, Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro in the tropical Atlantic coast, and Paraná in the subtropical region. To describe the time series, we proposed a set of epi-features of the magnitude and duration of the dengue epidemic cycles, totaling 13 indicators. Using these epi-features as inputs, a multivariate cluster algorithm was employed to classify the municipalities according to their dengue transmission profile. Municipalities were classified into four distinct dengue transmission profiles: persistent transmission (7.8%), epidemic (21.3%), episodic/epidemic (43.2%), and episodic transmission (27.6%). Different profiles were associated with the municipality's population size and climate. Municipalities with higher incidence and larger populations tended to be classified as persistent transmission, suggesting the existence of critical community size. This association, however, varies depending on the state, indicating the importance of other factors. The proposed classification is useful for developing more specific and precise surveillance protocols for regions with different dengue transmission profiles, as well as more precise public policies for dengue prevention.

Entomological Surveillance of Aedes Mosquitoes: Comparison of Different Collection Methods in an Endemic Area in RIO de Janeiro, Brazil.

Using collection methods for Aedes adults as surveillance tools provides reliable indices and arbovirus detection possibilities. This study compared the effectiveness of different methods for collecting Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and detecting arboviruses circulating in field-caught female specimens. Collection sites were defined in urban, peri-urban, and rural landscapes in two Brazilian cities. Collections were performed using Adultraps (ADT), BG-Sentinel (BGS), CDC-like traps (CDC), and indoor (ASP-I) and outdoor (ASP-O) aspiration during the rainy and dry seasons of 2015 and 2016. Generalized linear mixed models were used to model the effectiveness of each collection method. A total of 434 Ae. aegypti and 393 Ae. albopictus were collected. In total, 64 Ae. aegypti and sixteen Ae. albopictus female pools were tested for DENV, CHIKV, ZIKV, or YFV; none were positive. Positivity and density were linear at low densities (<1 specimen); thereafter, the relationship became non-linear. For Ae. aegypti, ADT and CDC were less effective, and ASP-I and ASP-O were as effective as BGS. For Ae. albopictus, all collection methods were less effective than BGS. This study highlights the need for an integrated surveillance method as an effective tool for monitoring Aedes vectors.

Faster indicators of chikungunya incidence using Google searches.

Chikungunya, a mosquito-borne disease, is a growing threat in Brazil, where over 640,000 cases have been reported since 2017. However, there are often long delays between diagnoses of chikungunya cases and their entry in the national monitoring system, leaving policymakers without the up-to-date case count statistics they need. In contrast, weekly data on Google searches for chikungunya is available with no delay. Here, we analyse whether Google search data can help improve rapid estimates of chikungunya case counts in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We build on a Bayesian approach suitable for data that is subject to long and varied delays, and find that including Google search data reduces both model error and uncertainty. These improvements are largest during epidemics, which are particularly important periods for policymakers. Including Google search data in chikungunya surveillance systems may therefore help policymakers respond to future epidemics more quickly.

Estimating the SARS-CoV2 infections detection rate and cumulative incidence in the World Health Organization African Region 10 months into the pandemic.

As of 03 January 2021, the WHO African region is the least affected by the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, accounting for only 2.4% of cases and deaths reported globally. However, concerns abound about whether the number of cases and deaths reported from the region reflect the true burden of the disease and how the monitoring of the pandemic trajectory can inform response measures.We retrospectively estimated four key epidemiological parameters (the total number of cases, the number of missed cases, the detection rate and the cumulative incidence) using the COVID-19 prevalence calculator tool developed by Resolve to Save Lives. We used cumulative cases and deaths reported during the period 25 February to 31 December 2020 for each WHO Member State in the region as well as population data to estimate the four parameters of interest. The estimated number of confirmed cases in 42 countries out of 47 of the WHO African region included in this study was 13 947 631 [95% confidence interval (CI): 13 334 620-14 635 502] against 1 889 512 cases reported, representing 13.5% of overall detection rate (range: 4.2% in Chad, 43.9% in Guinea). The cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was estimated at 1.38% (95% CI: 1.31%-1.44%), with South Africa the highest [14.5% (95% CI: 13.9%-15.2%)] and Mauritius [0.1% (95% CI: 0.099%-0.11%)] the lowest. The low detection rate found in most countries of the WHO African region suggests the need to strengthen SARS-CoV-2 testing capacities and adjusting testing strategies.

Identification of priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil. / Identificação de grupos prioritários para a vacinação contra COVID-19 no Brasil.

In a context of community transmission and shortage of vaccines, COVID-19 vaccination should focus on directly reducing the morbidity and mortality caused by the disease. It was thus essential to define priority groups for vaccination by the Brazilian National Immunization Program (PNI in Portuguese), based on the risk of hospitalization and death from the disease. We calculated overrisk according to sex, age group, and comorbidities using hospitalization and death records from severe acute respiratory illness with confirmation of COVID-19 (SARI-COVID) in all of Brazil in the first 6 months of the epidemic. Higher overrisk was associated with male sex (hospitalization = 1.1 and death = 1.2), age over 45 years for hospitalization (OvRag ranging from 1.1 to 8.5), and age over 55 year for death (OvRag ranging from 1.5 to 18.3). In the groups with comorbidities, chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, and chronic lung disease were associated with overrisk, while there was no such evidence for asthma. Chronic kidney disease or diabetes and age over 60 showed an even stronger association, reaching overrisk of death 14 and 10 times greater than in the general population, respectively. For all the comorbidities, there was higher overrisk at older ages, with a downward gradient in the oldest age groups. This pattern was reversed when examining overrisk in the general population, for both hospitalization and death. The current study provided evidence of overrisk of hospitalization and death from SARI-COVID, assisting the definition of priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination.

Em um contexto de transmissão comunitária e escassez de vacinas, a vacinação contra a COVID-19 deve focar na redução direta da morbidade e da mortalidade causadas pela doença. Portanto, é fundamental a definição de grupos prioritários para a vacinação pelo Programa Nacional de Imunizações (PNI), baseada no risco de hospitalização e óbito pela doença. Para tal, calculamos o sobrerrisco por sexo, faixa etária e comorbidades por meio dos registros de hospitalização e óbito por síndrome respiratória aguda grave com confirmação de COVID-19 (SRAG-COVID) em todo o Brasil nos primeiros seis meses de epidemia. Apresentaram maior sobrerrisco pessoas do sexo masculino (hospitalização = 1,1 e óbito = 1,2), pessoas acima de 45 anos para hospitalização (SRfe variando de 1,1 a 8,5) e pessoas acima de 55 anos para óbitos (SRfe variando de 1,5 a 18,3). Nos grupos de comorbidades, doença renal crônica, diabetes mellitus, doença cardiovascular e pneumopatia crônica conferiram sobrerrisco, enquanto para asma não houve evidência. Ter doença renal crônica ou diabetes mellitus e 60 anos ou mais mostrou-se um fator ainda mais forte, alcançando sobrerrisco de óbito 14 e 10 vezes maior do que na população geral, respectivamente. Para todas as comorbidades, houve um sobrerrisco mais alto em idades maiores, com um gradiente de diminuição em faixas mais altas. Esse padrão se inverteu quando consideramos o sobrerrisco em relação à população geral, tanto para hospitalização quanto para óbito. O presente estudo forneceu evidências a respeito do sobrerrisco de hospitalização e óbito por SRAG-COVID, auxiliando na definição de grupos prioritários para a vacinação contra a COVID-19.

En un contexto de transmisión comunitaria y escasez de vacunas, la vacunación contra la COVID-19 debe enfocarse en la reducción directa de la morbilidad y de la mortalidad causadas por la enfermedad. Por lo tanto, es fundamental la definición de grupos prioritarios para la vacunación por el Programa Nacional de Inmunizaciones (PNI), basada en el riesgo de hospitalización y óbito por la enfermedad. Para tal fin, calculamos el sobrerriesgo por sexo, franja de edad y comorbilidades mediante los registros de hospitalización y óbito por síndrome respiratorio agudo grave con confirmación de COVID-19 (SRAG-COVID) en todo Brasil, durante los primeros seis meses de epidemia. Presentaron mayor sobrerriesgo personas del sexo masculino (hospitalización = 1,1 y óbito = 1,2), personas por encima de 45 años para hospitalización (SRfe variando de 1,1 a 8,5) y personas por encima de 55 años para óbitos (SRfe variando de 1,5 a 18,3). En los grupos de comorbilidades, enfermedad renal crónica, diabetes mellitus, enfermedad cardiovascular y neumopatía crónica ofrecieron sobrerriesgo, mientras que para el asma no hubo evidencia. Sufrir una enfermedad renal crónica o diabetes mellitus y tener 60 años o más mostró un factor todavía más fuerte, alcanzando sobrerriesgo de enfermedad 14 y 10 veces mayor que en la población general, respectivamente. Para todas las comorbilidades, hubo un sobrerriesgo más alto en edades mayores, con un gradiente de disminución en franjas más altas. Este patrón se invirtió cuando consideramos el sobrerriesgo en relación con la población general, tanto para hospitalización como para óbito. El presente estudio proporcionó evidencias respecto al sobrerriesgo de hospitalización y óbito por SRAG-COVID, ayudando en la definición de grupos prioritarios para la vacunación contra la COVID-19.

COVID-19 in the WHO African region: using risk assessment to inform decisions on public health and social measures.

Successive waves of COVID-19 transmission have led to exponential increases in new infections globally. In this study, we have applied a decision-making tool to assess the risk of continuing transmission to inform decisions on tailored public health and social measures (PHSM) using data on cases and deaths reported by Member States to the WHO Regional Office for Africa as of 31 December 2020. Transmission classification and health system capacity were used to assess the risk level of each country to guide implementation and adjustments to PHSM. Two countries out of 46 assessed met the criteria for sporadic transmission, one for clusters of cases, and 43 (93.5%) for community transmission (CT) including three with uncontrolled disease incidence (Eswatini, Namibia and South Africa). Health system response's capacities were assessed as adequate in two countries (4.3%), moderate in 13 countries (28.3%) and limited in 31 countries (64.4%). The risk level, calculated as a combination of transmission classification and health system response's capacities, was assessed at level 0 in one country (2.1%), level 1 in two countries (4.3%), level 2 in 11 countries (23.9%) and level 3 in 32 (69.6%) countries. The scale of severity ranged from 0 to 4, with 0 the lowest. CT coupled with limited response capacity resulted in a level 3 risk assessment in most countries. Countries at level 3 should be considered as priority focus for additional assistance, in order to prevent the risk rising to level 4, which may necessitate enforcing hard and costly lockdown measures. The large number of countries at level 3 indicates the need for an effective risk management system to be used as a basis for adjusting PHSM at national and sub-national levels.

Cobertura da vacina papilomavírus humano (HPV) no Brasil: heterogeneidade espacial e entre coortes etárias / Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in Brazil: spatial and age cohort heterogeneity

RESUMO: Objetivo: Estimar a cobertura da primeira e da segunda dose da vacina papilomavírus humano (HPV) no Brasil, conforme a microrregião, comparando-se as coortes de meninas com 14, 15 e 16 anos em 2017, e investigar a associação da heterogeneidade espacial na cobertura vacinal com variáveis sociodemográficas. Métodos: A informação sobre doses aplicadas nos anos de 2013 a 2017 por idade foi obtida do Programa Nacional de Imunizações. O número de meninas residentes com sete, oito e nove anos em 2010, em cada microrregião, é oriundo do censo brasileiro de 2010. Para a análise, a cobertura vacinal acumulada por microrregião (n = 558) foi categorizada em baixa (< 80%) e adequada (≥ 80%), e um modelo logístico com intercepto aleatório foi ajustado, tendo cobertura vacinal adequada como desfecho. O efeito aleatório (unidade da federação) foi incluído para captar a correlação entre microrregiões que pertencem ao mesmo estado. Resultados: O percentual de microrregiões que alcançou a cobertura vacinal adequada foi significativamente maior para a primeira dose (entre 91,8 e 159,2%), independentemente da coorte. Observou-se menor cobertura da segunda dose (entre 7 e 79,9%), com heterogeneidade associada ao grau de urbanização e à presença de domicílios com banheiro de uso próprio no município. O efeito aleatório mostrou forte poder explicativo, sugerindo importantes diferenças entre os estados brasileiros no alcance da cobertura vacinal. Conclusão: Apesar de a vacina HPV estar disponível no Programa de Imunização, os achados do presente estudo apontam para uma dificuldade do alcance da cobertura vacinal adequada.

ABSTRACT: Objective: To estimate the coverage of the first and second dose of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in Brazil according to microregion, comparing cohorts of girls aged 14, 15, and 16 years in 2017, and investigate the association between spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and sociodemographic variables. Methods: Information about the doses administered from 2013 to 2017 by age was gathered from the National Immunization Program. The number of girls aged seven, eight, and nine years living in each microregion in 2010 was obtained from the 2010 Brazilian Census. For the analysis, the cumulated vaccination coverage per microregion (n = 558) was categorized as low (< 80%) and adequate (≥ 80%), and a random intercept logistic model was adjusted, with adequate vaccination coverage as the outcome. The random effect (federative unit) was included to identify the correlation between microregions that belong to the same state. Results: The percentage of microregions with adequate vaccination coverage was significantly higher in the first dose (between 91.8 and 159.2%), regardless of the cohort. The coverage of the second dose was lower (between 7 and 79.9%), with heterogeneity associated with the degree of urbanization and households with private bathrooms in the municipality. The random effect showed a strong explanatory power, suggesting important differences among Brazilian states as to the outreach of vaccination coverage. Conclusion: Although the HPV vaccine is available through the Immunization Program, the findings of the present study point to a difficulty in achieving adequate vaccination coverage.

Identificação de grupos prioritários para a vacinação contra COVID-19 no Brasil / Identificación de grupos prioritarios para la vacunación contra la COVID-19 en Brasil / Identification of priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil

Em um contexto de transmissão comunitária e escassez de vacinas, a vacinação contra a COVID-19 deve focar na redução direta da morbidade e da mortalidade causadas pela doença. Portanto, é fundamental a definição de grupos prioritários para a vacinação pelo Programa Nacional de Imunizações (PNI), baseada no risco de hospitalização e óbito pela doença. Para tal, calculamos o sobrerrisco por sexo, faixa etária e comorbidades por meio dos registros de hospitalização e óbito por síndrome respiratória aguda grave com confirmação de COVID-19 (SRAG-COVID) em todo o Brasil nos primeiros seis meses de epidemia. Apresentaram maior sobrerrisco pessoas do sexo masculino (hospitalização = 1,1 e óbito = 1,2), pessoas acima de 45 anos para hospitalização (SRfe variando de 1,1 a 8,5) e pessoas acima de 55 anos para óbitos (SRfe variando de 1,5 a 18,3). Nos grupos de comorbidades, doença renal crônica, diabetes mellitus, doença cardiovascular e pneumopatia crônica conferiram sobrerrisco, enquanto para asma não houve evidência. Ter doença renal crônica ou diabetes mellitus e 60 anos ou mais mostrou-se um fator ainda mais forte, alcançando sobrerrisco de óbito 14 e 10 vezes maior do que na população geral, respectivamente. Para todas as comorbidades, houve um sobrerrisco mais alto em idades maiores, com um gradiente de diminuição em faixas mais altas. Esse padrão se inverteu quando consideramos o sobrerrisco em relação à população geral, tanto para hospitalização quanto para óbito. O presente estudo forneceu evidências a respeito do sobrerrisco de hospitalização e óbito por SRAG-COVID, auxiliando na definição de grupos prioritários para a vacinação contra a COVID-19.

En un contexto de transmisión comunitaria y escasez de vacunas, la vacunación contra la COVID-19 debe enfocarse en la reducción directa de la morbilidad y de la mortalidad causadas por la enfermedad. Por lo tanto, es fundamental la definición de grupos prioritarios para la vacunación por el Programa Nacional de Inmunizaciones (PNI), basada en el riesgo de hospitalización y óbito por la enfermedad. Para tal fin, calculamos el sobrerriesgo por sexo, franja de edad y comorbilidades mediante los registros de hospitalización y óbito por síndrome respiratorio agudo grave con confirmación de COVID-19 (SRAG-COVID) en todo Brasil, durante los primeros seis meses de epidemia. Presentaron mayor sobrerriesgo personas del sexo masculino (hospitalización = 1,1 y óbito = 1,2), personas por encima de 45 años para hospitalización (SRfe variando de 1,1 a 8,5) y personas por encima de 55 años para óbitos (SRfe variando de 1,5 a 18,3). En los grupos de comorbilidades, enfermedad renal crónica, diabetes mellitus, enfermedad cardiovascular y neumopatía crónica ofrecieron sobrerriesgo, mientras que para el asma no hubo evidencia. Sufrir una enfermedad renal crónica o diabetes mellitus y tener 60 años o más mostró un factor todavía más fuerte, alcanzando sobrerriesgo de enfermedad 14 y 10 veces mayor que en la población general, respectivamente. Para todas las comorbilidades, hubo un sobrerriesgo más alto en edades mayores, con un gradiente de disminución en franjas más altas. Este patrón se invirtió cuando consideramos el sobrerriesgo en relación con la población general, tanto para hospitalización como para óbito. El presente estudio proporcionó evidencias respecto al sobrerriesgo de hospitalización y óbito por SRAG-COVID, ayudando en la definición de grupos prioritarios para la vacunación contra la COVID-19.

In a context of community transmission and shortage of vaccines, COVID-19 vaccination should focus on directly reducing the morbidity and mortality caused by the disease. It was thus essential to define priority groups for vaccination by the Brazilian National Immunization Program (PNI in Portuguese), based on the risk of hospitalization and death from the disease. We calculated overrisk according to sex, age group, and comorbidities using hospitalization and death records from severe acute respiratory illness with confirmation of COVID-19 (SARI-COVID) in all of Brazil in the first 6 months of the epidemic. Higher overrisk was associated with male sex (hospitalization = 1.1 and death = 1.2), age over 45 years for hospitalization (OvRag ranging from 1.1 to 8.5), and age over 55 year for death (OvRag ranging from 1.5 to 18.3). In the groups with comorbidities, chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, and chronic lung disease were associated with overrisk, while there was no such evidence for asthma. Chronic kidney disease or diabetes and age over 60 showed an even stronger association, reaching overrisk of death 14 and 10 times greater than in the general population, respectively. For all the comorbidities, there was higher overrisk at older ages, with a downward gradient in the oldest age groups. This pattern was reversed when examining overrisk in the general population, for both hospitalization and death. The current study provided evidence of overrisk of hospitalization and death from SARI-COVID, assisting the definition of priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in Brazil: spatial and age cohort heterogeneity. / Cobertura da vacina papilomavírus humano (HPV) no Brasil: heterogeneidade espacial e entre coortes etárias.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the coverage of the first and second dose of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in Brazil according to microregion, comparing cohorts of girls aged 14, 15, and 16 years in 2017, and investigate the association between spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and sociodemographic variables. METHODS: Information about the doses administered from 2013 to 2017 by age was gathered from the National Immunization Program. The number of girls aged seven, eight, and nine years living in each microregion in 2010 was obtained from the 2010 Brazilian Census. For the analysis, the cumulated vaccination coverage per microregion (n = 558) was categorized as low (< 80%) and adequate (≥ 80%), and a random intercept logistic model was adjusted, with adequate vaccination coverage as the outcome. The random effect (federative unit) was included to identify the correlation between microregions that belong to the same state. RESULTS: The percentage of microregions with adequate vaccination coverage was significantly higher in the first dose (between 91.8 and 159.2%), regardless of the cohort. The coverage of the second dose was lower (between 7 and 79.9%), with heterogeneity associated with the degree of urbanization and households with private bathrooms in the municipality. The random effect showed a strong explanatory power, suggesting important differences among Brazilian states as to the outreach of vaccination coverage. CONCLUSION: Although the HPV vaccine is available through the Immunization Program, the findings of the present study point to a difficulty in achieving adequate vaccination coverage.

OBJETIVO: Estimar a cobertura da primeira e da segunda dose da vacina papilomavírus humano (HPV) no Brasil, conforme a microrregião, comparando-se as coortes de meninas com 14, 15 e 16 anos em 2017, e investigar a associação da heterogeneidade espacial na cobertura vacinal com variáveis sociodemográficas. MÉTODOS: A informação sobre doses aplicadas nos anos de 2013 a 2017 por idade foi obtida do Programa Nacional de Imunizações. O número de meninas residentes com sete, oito e nove anos em 2010, em cada microrregião, é oriundo do censo brasileiro de 2010. Para a análise, a cobertura vacinal acumulada por microrregião (n = 558) foi categorizada em baixa (< 80%) e adequada (≥ 80%), e um modelo logístico com intercepto aleatório foi ajustado, tendo cobertura vacinal adequada como desfecho. O efeito aleatório (unidade da federação) foi incluído para captar a correlação entre microrregiões que pertencem ao mesmo estado. RESULTADOS: O percentual de microrregiões que alcançou a cobertura vacinal adequada foi significativamente maior para a primeira dose (entre 91,8 e 159,2%), independentemente da coorte. Observou-se menor cobertura da segunda dose (entre 7 e 79,9%), com heterogeneidade associada ao grau de urbanização e à presença de domicílios com banheiro de uso próprio no município. O efeito aleatório mostrou forte poder explicativo, sugerindo importantes diferenças entre os estados brasileiros no alcance da cobertura vacinal. CONCLUSÃO: Apesar de a vacina HPV estar disponível no Programa de Imunização, os achados do presente estudo apontam para uma dificuldade do alcance da cobertura vacinal adequada.

Measuring Timeliness of Outbreak Response in the World Health Organization African Region, 2017-2019.

Large-scale protracted outbreaks can be prevented through early detection, notification, and rapid control. We assessed trends in timeliness of detecting and responding to outbreaks in the African Region reported to the World Health Organization during 2017-2019. We computed the median time to each outbreak milestone and assessed the rates of change over time using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. We selected 296 outbreaks from 348 public reported health events and evaluated 184 for time to detection, 232 for time to notification, and 201 for time to end. Time to detection and end decreased over time, whereas time to notification increased. Multiple factors can account for these findings, including scaling up support to member states after the World Health Organization established its Health Emergencies Programme and support given to countries from donors and partners to strengthen their core capacities for meeting International Health Regulations.

Predictors of influenza vaccine uptake: translation into Portuguese and validation of a questionnaire. / Preditores de aceitação da vacina contra influenza: tradução para o português e validação de um questionário.

The difficulty in achieving ideal coverage rates with the influenza vaccine in Brazil and the growing wave of antivaccine movements in the world point to the need for a more in-depth understanding of the individual determinants of to this vaccine uptake. The Health Belief Model, a theoretical model that aims to explain and predict health-related behaviors, suggests that individual beliefs influence the adoption of health-related behaviors. The objective of this study was a cross-cultural adaptation of an instrument to assess predictors of influenza vaccine uptake in Brazilian adults. The authors conducted translation, back-translation, face validity, and a survey for construct validity. They also analyzed the factors associated with influenza vaccine uptake in 2017. An instrument originally with seven domains was identified and selected. In the factor analysis, four of the model's seven constructs were validated: Susceptibility, Barriers, Cues to action, and Self-efficacy. In the survey with 396 persons, 59.3% reported having received the influenza vaccine in the last campaign in 2017. Female sex, age > 50 years, pregnancy, vaccination in private healthcare services, hepatitis B vaccination, and influenza vaccination prior to 2017 were associated with vaccination in 2017. In the final logistic regression model, perceived Barriers appeared as a strong factor for non-vaccination, while Cues to action increased the odds of vaccination.

A dificuldade de alcançar coberturas ideais para a vacina contra influenza no Brasil e a crescente onda do movimento antivacina no mundo apontam a necessidade de aprofundar a compreensão dos determinantes individuais de adesão a essa vacina. O Modelo de Crenças em Saúde, um modelo teórico que objetiva explicar e predizer o comportamento em relação à saúde, sugere que crenças individuais influenciam a adoção de comportamentos relacionados a essa área. Este trabalho teve como objetivo a adaptação transcultural de um instrumento para avaliar os preditores de aceitação da vacina da influenza em adultos no Brasil. Realizaram-se a tradução, a retrotradução, a validade de face e um inquérito para validade de construto. Também foram analisados os fatores associados à adesão à vacina da influenza em 2017. Um instrumento, originalmente com sete domínios, foi identificado e selecionado. Na análise fatorial, quatro dos sete construtos do modelo teórico foram validados: Suscetibilidade, Barreiras, Estímulos para a ação e Motivação para a saúde. No inquérito das 396 pessoas, 59,3% relataram vacinação contra influenza na última campanha de 2017. Sexo feminino, idade > 50 anos, gestante, vacina na rede privada, vacinação contra a hepatite B e influenza antes de 2017 mostraram-se como fatores associados à vacinação em 2017. No modelo logístico final, a percepção de Barreiras apresentou-se como um forte Estímulo para não vacinação, ao passo que Estímulos para a ação atuou aumentando a chance de vacinação.

La dificultad de alcanzar coberturas ideales para la vacuna contra la gripe en Brasil y la creciente ola del movimiento antivacunas en el mundo apunta la necesidad de profundizar la comprensión de los determinantes individuales de adhesión a esa vacuna. El Modelo de Creencias en Salud, un modelo teórico que tiene como objetivo explicar y predecir el comportamiento en relación con la salud, sugiere que las creencias individuales influencian la adopción de comportamientos relacionados con esa área. El objetivo de este trabajo es la adaptación transcultural de un instrumento para evaluar los predictores de aceptación de la vacuna de la gripe en adultos en Brasil. Se realizó la traducción, retrotraducción, validez de la presentación, así como una encuesta para la validez del constructo. También se analizaron los factores asociados con la adhesión a la vacuna de la gripe en 2017. Un instrumento, originalmente con siete dominios, fue identificado y seleccionado. En el análisis factorial, cuatro de los siete constructos del modelo teórico fueron evaluados: Susceptibilidad, Barreras, Estímulos para la acción y Motivación para la salud. En el cuestionario a las 396 personas, 59,3% informaron haber sido vacunadas contra la gripe en la última campaña de 2017. Sexo femenino, edad > 50 años, embarazada, vacunada en la red privada, vacunación contra la hepatitis B y gripe antes de 2017 se mostraron como factores asociados a la vacunación en 2017. En el modelo logístico final, la percepción de Barreras se presentó como un fuerte Estímulo para la no vacunación, al paso que Estímulos para la acción actuó aumentando la oportunidad de vacunación.

Diversity of mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) vectors in a heterogeneous landscape endemic for arboviruses.

BACKGROUND: In Brazil and several countries in the Americas, where dengue, chikungunya and Zika are cocirculating, there is a need to understand how different mosquito species relate to landscape and humans. Mosquito ecology and distribution, especially at finer spatial scales, are key factors to study since the relationship of mosquito communities to their habitats might have important consequences in the risk of disease transmission to humans. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diversity of resident culicids along heterogeneous landscapes in different endemic cities for dengue, chikungunya and Zika. METHODS: Fourteen collection sites were randomly selected in six landscapes characterized as urban, periurban and rural along two endemic metropolitan cities in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Itaboraí and Cachoeiras de Macacu, Rio de Janeiro. In each site, adult mosquito collections were performed using different traps and backpack aspiration. Collections took place during the rainy and dry seasons of 2015 and 2016. To measure diversity in each landscape, we generated species accumulation curves and used different indexes: rarefied species richness, Chao1-bc and ACE-1. Mosquito habitat segregation along different land use types was measured with a partial canonical correspondence analysis (pCCA). Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were used to model the probability of occurrence of the most abundant species along an Urban-Forest gradient. RESULTS: A total of 13,462 adult mosquitoes from 10 genera and 41 species were collected. The most abundant species were Culex quinquefasciatus Say, 1823, Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1895). There was a significant association between rarefied species richness and landscape, with higher richness in the Rural landscape. The number of observed species was matched only in the Urban landscape. Most species showed segregation along an Urban-Forest gradient, and the great majority were associated with forested habitats. We were able to fit prediction models for six mosquito species. DISCUSSION: The paper discusses the impact of human activities on landscape and its effects on mosquito populations, focusing on the segregation of different known vector species and their proximity to human altered environments. Most of these species are known arbovirus vectors and knowledge of their distribution are key elements that health authorities should take into account when planning arbovirus surveillance and vector control activities.

[Control of canine visceral leishmaniasis by euthanasia: estimated effect based on a survey and mathematical modeling]. / Controle da leishmaniose visceral canina por eutanásia: estimativa de efeito baseado em inquérito e modelagem matemática.

Visceral leishmaniasis is an emerging and neglected disease that is currently expanding to urban areas. The incidence of human disease is related to canine infection. Araçatuba and Birigui are municipalities (counties) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, with 8-10% seroprevalence of canine infection and that employ control strategies targeting the canine reservoir, based on serological survey and culling of seropositive dogs. Using data from these control programs to parameterize mathematical models, this study assessed the efficacy of these activities. We estimated that current control is capable of reducing the incidence of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) by approximately 20%. Assuming continuous control and three times the current serological survey activities in Araçatuba and Birigui, culling dogs with a positive CVL diagnosis would be effective for the control of canine infection. Although theoretically possible, in practice the control of CVL with the currently recommended strategies is insufficient, since it would require overcoming the difficulties in these activities, such as lack of material, human, and financial resources, besides associated ethical and legal issues.

A leishmaniose visceral é uma doença emergente e negligenciada em processo de expansão para áreas urbanas. A incidência da doença humana está relacionada com a infecção canina. Araçatuba e Birigui são municípios do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, com soroprevalência da infecção canina de 8 a 10%, que empregam estratégias de controle voltadas ao reservatório canino baseado em inquérito sorológico e eutanásia dos cães soropositivos. Usando dados desses programas de controle para parametrizar modelos matemáticos, este estudo avaliou a eficácia dessas atividades. Estimamos que o controle atualmente empregado é capaz de reduzir em cerca de 20% a incidência de casos de leishmaniose visceral canina (LVC). Considerando-se um controle contínuo e um esforço das atividades de inquérito sorológico igual ao triplo da média do observado em Araçatuba e Birigui, a atividade de eutanásia de cães com diagnóstico positivo seria efetiva para o controle da infecção canina. Embora teoricamente possível, na prática, o controle da LVC com as estratégias preconizadas atualmente é insuficiente, pois exigiria superpor dificuldades enfrentadas por estas atividades como falta de recursos materiais, humanos e financeiros, além das questões éticas e jurídicas associadas.

La leishmaniasis visceral es una enfermedad emergente y pasada por alto en proceso de expansión hacia áreas urbanas. La incidencia de la enfermedad humana está relacionada con la infección canina. Araçatuba y Birigui son municipios del estado de São Paulo, Brasil, con una seroprevalencia de infección canina de un 8 a un 10% que emplean estrategias de control dirigidas al reservorio canino, basado en una encuesta serológica y eutanasia de los perros seropositivos. Usando datos de esos programas de control para proporcionar parámetros en modelos matemáticos, este estudio evaluó la eficacia de esas actividades. Estimamos que el control actualmente empleado es capaz de reducir cerca de un 20% la incidencia de casos de leishmaniasis visceral canina (LVC). Si se considera un control continuo y un esfuerzo de las actividades de encuesta serológica igual al triple de la media de lo observado en Araçatuba y Birigui, la actividad de eutanasia de perros con diagnóstico positivo sería efectiva para el control de la infección canina. A pesar de que teóricamente es posible, en la práctica el control de la LVC con las estrategias preconizadas actualmente es insuficiente, puesto que exigiría superar dificultades a las que se enfrentan estas actividades como la falta de recursos materiales, humanos y financieros, además de las cuestiones éticas y jurídicas asociadas.